Energy Solutions (ES)

I just bought 1000 shares of Energy Solutions at $5.50. I read some
information about this company this morning and decided to buy. They
had negative earnings last year and haven't done well over the past 3
years which has dragged their stock from $20/share to $5/share. But
they are projected to have positive earnings this year (2011) and
their current projected stock target by the analysts is $7.60/share
for this year. This stock is trading at a discount of 24.74%, when
comparing the current price of $5.55 vs. the target price of $7.60.
Their total levered free cash flow is at 214.56M, which represents
about 44.52% of the company's market cap.

However, they have significant debt and long-term liabilities which
means they will need to generate significant cash flow and earnings to
keep up with debt payments, which is probably the biggest reason why
the stock is down. But as the economy improves, this stock should
move steadily up. I'm hoping for $1 increase in the stock price in
the next 6 months for $1000 gain.

And besides, I have to have faith in the building sponsor of my Utah Jazz!

JG

Winnebago (WGO)

So we've all heard of Winnebago, the classic maker of RV's and other
large vehicles, but what you probably don't know is that this once
industry leader was hit desperately hard by the recession and their
sales have fallen from $1 billion to a low of $200 million and back up
to $450 million over the last 3 years. I work in the travel industry
and I know very well that the travel industry among the hardest hit
during the recession. The fact is that RV's are luxury items that are
generally purchased on credit and only when consumers are feeling
flush in their pocketbooks with strong prospects of job creation and
growth. All of those economic indicators have fallen over the past 3
years and Winnebago is the victim. High fuel prices may continue to
depress this stock, but as the economy rebounds, Winnebago will follow
suit.

This stock is trading at $11.97 with a 1 year target estimate of
$14.67. It's P/E is a conservative 19 and it has a return on equity
of almost 19%. It's currently trading below is 200 day moving average
of $13.25 so this could be a nice buy. Here is what one website is
saying about Winnebago:

Analysts think sales will rebound 20% in fiscal 2011 and 2012. The key
is the economic variables: Falling oil prices and rising employment.
If those two catalysts come into play, then long-term investors are
likely to note just how cheap this stock now is, trading at roughly
six times peak earnings from the last cycle. The stock has come down
from $30 in 2007 to a recent $12, but if the economy appears
increasingly healthy later this year, look for shares to move back up
smartly into the $20s.

I'm thinking of buying 100 shares to start building a position. Let
me know what you think.

A123 Systems (AONE)

I've increased my position in this stock to 2000 shares. The most recent drop has motivated me to buy additional shares at the $5.75 level. Here are some additional insights from seekingalpha.com on A123:

This lithium-ion battery maker is now a "show-me" stock. After missing sales forecasts for a number of quarters, shares have slipped from more than $25 in late 2009 to less than $6. Those weak sales results led to higher-than-expected losses, which led to fast-sinking cash levels. As a result, investors began to realize A123 would need to keep selling more stock to stay afloat.That vicious cycle now looks to be at end. The company just raised another $250 million, and analysts increasingly think the era of big cash losses will wind down. By the time the cash from this latest capital infusion has been spent, A123 may actually be a profitable company.Here's why: A123 possesses strong engineering capabilities in its lithium-based batteries that are aimed at the transportation and electrical grid markets. This enabled the company to sign up an impressive roster of major clients. Trouble is, those clients have been slow to get going with their own cutting-edge programs. For example, Fisker Automotive, a rival of Tesla Motors (TSLA), has been dogged by delays in launching a new electric luxury sedan, but the sedan should finally reach customers this summer.A123 has also announced that a major unnamed automaker has signed up as a customer. Investors await more details about this mystery customer and about what type of deal both parties have agreed. But this news could help clarify why analysts think that after several years of disappointment, A123 is likely to see sales more than double in 2011 to around $200 million and double again in 2012. If that comes to pass, then A123 will be close to break-even and won't need to raise any more cash.With the stock now more than 75% from its late 2009 peak, these catalysts highlight that shares now hold more reward than risk.When you swing for the fences, you can also miss. Each of these stocks may prove to be dead money if these catalysts fail to develop. Yet they do appear to have found a floor at these levels, so investors aren't absorbing the usual amount of risk when looking at swing-for-the-fences-type stocks.

Still a risky play and very much a speculative play, but could really pay off big!

Ener1 (HEV)

I've also been watching HEV which was discussed in this article. It's another battery maker for electric cars. The stock is near at a 52 week low right now and it may be time to buy. I've watched it slide from $3/share to $2.55 over the past month mostly because of the Japan earthquake and tsunami, but no much else. They have a conference call coming up in May that will be interested to read/listen to. I'm thinking about starting a small position in the stock, maybe 500-1000 shares if it drops below $2.50.

I've read a lot of analysts who are bullish on this stock and expect these guys and A123 to be to the two leaders in battery production for electric cars. Another positive is that even though it is a small cap stock, it still averages over $1M shares trading every day which is good sign of activity in the stock and liquidity for buying and selling. They are mostly still in startup mode which means there is a lot of potential, but also significant risk. Put this one on your watch list and tell me what you think.

US Airways (LCC)

I've been following this stock for over a year now while it went from $7-12 and then retreated back to $8. It's trading below 50 day and 200 day moving averages, but the EPS is strong at $2.61/share and P/E is very low at 3. They also ended 2010 with the most cash they've had in 3 years, but they do have a lot of debt. However, there have been reports over the past few weeks with the CEO dropping hints about a merger or proposing the company as a takeover target.

The most previous year's EBITDA is $1.06B and the entire market cap is only $1.32B. Most analysts have the one year target at $12-13/share which puts this stock undervalued with a lot of growth potential.

I already bought 200 shares at $7.90 and looking to increase my position to 500 shares soon. Let me know what you think?

A123 Systems (AONE)

This company is an alternative energy company that manufactures lithium batteries for electric vehicles. I've been watching this stock for the past year or so and it has taken a beating with the Japanese earthquake, cash flow problems and poor financials. Not many reasons to invest here, right? But, the stock is down to $5.70 (low was $5.35 last week) after a high of $10.77 just in January of this year. The reason that I'm thinking about buying is because as oil and gas prices increase, the demand for alternative cheaper energy goes up. So as gas prices hit $4/gallon this summer, more and more people are going to get excited about electric powered vehicles which will drive momentum for this stock. This stock may have some serious legs if they sign a big contract or even if market sentiment starts pushing alternative energy. I think the stock may have hit a bottom and may start to work it's way back up towards $7-8/share. Cash flow is a problem which is why they just had to go back to the markets and sell stock. That's the main reason their stock has gone down over the past month.

Take a look and tell me what you think. I have a friend who works for A123 and he keeps on telling me that good things are happening and it's a good long-term investment.

JG

Expedia (EXPE)

I started looking at Expedia about 2 months ago when they released their earnings in Feb-11. The stock had a fast drop from $25 to $22 a share and then dropped further to $20/share. As I reviewed their financials, they had strong earnings, sufficient cash, and trading well below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. But what really sold me was comparing Expedia to its main competitors: Priceline, TravelZoo and Orbitz. Travelzoo has a P/E of 95 and weak earnings - looks more like I should short this stock. Orbitz is just sucking wind with negative earnings, low cash and negative growth. Priceline is a strong established company with $3B in sales, $838M EBITDA and market cap of $25B with a P/E of 49. But Expedia has almost the mirror image of financial performance with $3B in sales, $824M EBITDA but has market cap of $6.8B and P/E of 15. Expedia has also grown at about the same rate as Priceline over the last 2 year sand Expedia pays a dividend! How can this not be a good buy!

Priceline has more cash and less debt which is a big reason for the higher P/E. Expedia had a negative operating cash flow of $160M and overall cash loss of $236M while Priceline generated $179M in operating cash but had a negative cash flow for 2010 because of large capital investments. Expedia has a current ratio of .9 and Priceline is at 4.15 which is another big reason for the higher P/E and valuation.

However, I like Expedia to get to the $27-28 range this year. I personally bought 500 shares at $20.90 and today the stock jumped to $25/share. Expedia made an announcement about spinning off their TripAdvisor business which contributed to the jump in stock price. I feel like the travel industry is finally recovering from the recession and should start to see stronger growth over the next 2 years. I work in the travel industry so I am very interested to see the progress of all these stocks.

Tell me what you think about Expedia and the travel industry stocks?

Getting Started

So I've been interested for awhile in researching and investing in stocks and I'd like to create a forum for interaction and to share what I've found. Let me start by saying that I am not a great investor.....yet. I've had positive returns the last 2 years of over 20%, but it seems that every time I pick a winner, I have a loser to negate my positive earnings. I'm tired of the losers so I'm hoping to get some discussion and input going about the potential picks out there. But I love the thrill of a big stock market gain and it keeps me coming back....just like a 30 foot putt made every so often keeps me coming back to Golf!

For most of my 20's and and early 30's I was overly aggressive and invested mostly in speculative stocks. My biggest win was buying Overstock.com (OSTK) at $12/share in 2003 and watching it go to $75/share. I sold a big chunk at $57 and another chunk at $40 as it was going back down. I sold my last shares at $20 so at least I made some money. Last year I made another nice return buying Overstock.com at $16 and watching it go to $24 after it's first positive net income year in 2009. But I also lost money in Bank of America (BAC) and trading some risky ETF's (FAZ and FAS). I like the speculative stocks, but lately I've been burned so I'm transitioning more towards fundamental analysis.

I plan to do one or two posts a week on stocks that I'm reviewing or planning to buy or just watching and researching. Please feel free to comment and let me know you're thoughts about my research and discussing your own reasons for investing in stocks.

Thanks and good luck!